Baking & Snack - May 2020 - 28

INDUSTRY PULSE SURVEY

"THE LONGER-TERM
INDUSTRY IMPACTS OF
THIS OUTBREAK ARE
STILL TO BE REALIZED."
Marjorie Hellmer, Cypress Research
What do you expect will be the long-term impact
of COVID-19 on your company? (Aggregate)
3
29

Supply chain disruption

%

33

UNSURE
INCREASED PRODUCTION
DECREASED PRODUCTION
NO CHANGE

35

Long-term
impact of
COVID-19
on company

Small
wholesale

Midsize
regional
wholesale

Large
national
wholesale

Increased
production

21%

34%

45%

No change

7%

4%

0%

Decreased
production

54%

30%

15%

Unsure

18%

15%

40%

During the next few months, to what extent do
you expect the COVID-19 outbreak to disrupt your
supply chain in the following areas? (Aggregate)
% that rated each area a 4 or 5 on a 5-point scale where 5 = Great Extent

INGREDIENTS

bakeries, there's a relatively even split between those
that expect increased production and the ones unsure
of what to anticipate, 45% and 40%, respectively.
"The smaller companies are contributing a
disproportionate amount of concern for loss in production, while the national manufacturers have a
more uncertain outlook about the long-term impact
of COVID-19," Ms. Hellmer said.
This could be attributed to the fact that many
smaller bakeries serve those foodservice outlets that
have been forced to either limit their business to
curbside-only or have shut down completely.

14% 23%

PACKAGING

14% 28%

EQUIPMENT

18% 32%

CURRENT disruptions in supply chain
EXPECTED future disruptions in supply chain (next few mos.)

28 Baking & Snack May 2020 / www.bakingbusiness.com

At the time of the survey, overall operating capacity was holding steady in the manufacturing plants.
Since then, however, some large manufacturers have
announced temporary shutdowns at facilities where
workers have tested positive for COVID-19, which
shifted production to other plants and increased capacity at those locations.
Almost half of the bakers also reported that, in
early stages of the crisis, they experienced almost no
supply chain disruption with ingredients, equipment
or packaging, but they do expect that to change in the
coming months.
Currently, social distancing measures and other
steps to protect workers' health have halted some
equipment installations and prevented service technicians from entering plants.
According to the survey, the main business concern
remains the availability of staff for operations, with
40% of bakery executives saying they are "extremely"
concerned. And it's also one of the top-ranked business concerns for these bakeries as well.
"When we zero in on the acute concerns, you can
see that at least 20% of baking executives rated their
highest concern levels for long equipment lead times,
planned startups and also worker safety practices,"
Ms. Hellmer said. "These are great concerns during
the pandemic."

Maintaining constant communication
During this critical time, communication is more important than ever, and bakers are taking a proactive
approach. To ensure supply chain continuity, mid-size
and large national bakeries are also enlisting backup
supply options.
Bakers are taking the same approach with their own
customers. Nearly all survey participants (96%) noted
that they are communicating with their customers on
finished product continuity and their company's food
safety practices. And 93% said they are communicat-


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Baking & Snack - May 2020

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Baking & Snack - May 2020 - 1
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